As a correspondent for FRONTLINER Magazine, I’ve been tasked with dissecting the complex and increasingly precarious situation in the Balkans, particularly focusing on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s political tensions and the role of international diplomacy – or the lack thereof – in this escalating crisis. My analysis uncovers a disturbing narrative of appeasement and enablement by key Western diplomats towards Serbia’s Kremlin-aligned autocratic leader, Aleksandar Vucic, and the consequent peril this poses to the region.
In recent months, the actions and rhetoric of U.S. Ambassador to Belgrade Chris Hill, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, his envoy Gabriel Escobar, and EU diplomats such as Miroslav Lajcak and Josep Borrell have been conspicuously lenient towards Vucic’s regime. This diplomatic stance is not only disappointing but dangerously short-sighted. Vucic, a former propaganda minister in the Milosevic regime, has a well-documented history of justifying crimes against humanity. His recent involvement in election fraud, the orchestration of a “Russian-style green men” attack in Banjska of northern Kosovo in September last year, and his brash statement about Serbia being a “superpower” due to its possession of nearly 300 tanks, are not just troubling signs of autocratic behaviour but are indicative of a deeper malaise in the Balkans, fuelled by external powers like Russia.
The failure of Western diplomacy to take a firmer stand against Vucic’s actions is a glaring error in judgment. Their appeasement has not only emboldened an autocrat but has also inadvertently contributed to the destabilisation of the region. The Balkans, a region historically fraught with ethnic tensions and conflict, cannot afford such diplomatic missteps. The consequences of these actions are not theoretical; they are real and potentially catastrophic.
In Kosovo, where the threat from Serbia is increasingly tangible, there is a pressing need for a more robust military investment. The threats posed by Vucic’s regime are escalating daily, and Kosovo’s response should be one of strength and preparedness. The international community, particularly the United States and the European Union, must reassess their diplomatic strategies and take a more proactive stance in countering the rise of autocratic leaders like Vucic, who not only pose a threat to regional stability but also undermine the principles of democracy and human rights.
Serbia’s role in the Balkans has been one of disruption and aggression, with recent actions in Kosovo highlighting a blatant disregard for democratic norms and international law. The Serbian government has sponsored an election boycott in Kosovo, kidnapped Kosovo police officers, and trained insurrectionists. In Serbia itself, protestors are mistreated, and the electoral process is marred with allegations of fraud and coercion. Yet, astonishingly, the Biden administration continues to view Belgrade as a bastion of democracy, a stance that not only misrepresents the reality on the ground but also emboldens autocratic behaviour.
The situation in Kosovo is particularly alarming. Despite being the victim of Serbia’s territorial and constitutional aggression, which included the injury of over 90 NATO peacekeeping troops, Kosovo remains sanctioned. The EU spokesman Peter Stano’s insistence that Kosovo must de-escalate the situation in the north is a baffling demand. Does this mean a retreat of Kosovo’s law enforcement from northern Kosovo, leaving the area open to organised crime and armed insurgents from Belgrade? This expectation seems not only unfair but dangerously naive.
In Bosnia, Serbia’s influence is equally malign. Today Milorad Dodik, an ally of Putin, celebrates the national day of the Republika Srpska, despite a court ban, Serbs in the Republika Srpska are marking the 32nd anniversary of the entity’s founding with a military parade. This defiance against Bosnia & Herzegovina’s Constitutional Court, which declared the January 9 “Republika Srpska Day” illegal and discriminatory against non-Serbs, is a stark reminder of Serbia’s role in the Bosnian Genocide and its continued impact on the region.
The celebrations in Banja Luka and for the first time in Serb-majority East Sarajevo, where Republika Srpska’s administrative centre is located, are not just cultural events. They are political statements, reinforcing divisive nationalism and undermining the fragile peace in Bosnia & Herzegovina.
In response to Dodik’s secessionist threats, the U.S. has made a small yet significant move. As Bosnian writer and critic Jasmin Mujanovic tweeted, the U.S. Air Force flyover of Bosnia & Herzegovina, part of a joint exercise with the BiH Armed Forces, signals a commitment to defending the nation’s territorial integrity. This action, though modest, is a step in the right direction, countering the passive stance often adopted by Western diplomats.
The actions and inactions of U.S. and EU diplomats in the Balkans, particularly in their dealings with Serbia, represent a distressing shift in international diplomacy. This misguided approach, marked by an appeasement of Kremlin-aligned Serbian expansionism, is not just a diplomatic failure; it is a dangerous precedent that risks igniting another catastrophic conflict in the region. The indulgence shown towards Serbia’s autocratic tendencies under Aleksandar Vucic is a clear deviation from the principles of democracy and human rights. As the situation continues to deteriorate, it is imperative to acknowledge that this anomalous trajectory towards potential bloodshed is not just a regional concern, but a global one. Should there be further developments in the wrong direction, the accountability lies squarely on the shoulders of these Western diplomats, whose current policies are shaping up to be nothing short of a march towards chaos and conflict in the Balkans.
Vudi Xhymshiti, founder and chief editor of The Frontliner Magazine, brings a wealth of experience in reporting on global armed conflicts and political issues. With a background in Documentary Photography and Photojournalism from the University of the Arts London, and studies in Political Science, International Relations, and Diplomacy, Vudi skilfully merges human rights insights with dedicated journalism. His ethical and thoughtful reporting has graced top publications like The Guardian and The New York Times. At The Frontliner, launched in 2023, he explores the profound effects of conflicts on law, human rights, and freedoms, continuing his commitment to impactful storytelling.
