In an alarming Sunday report by Der Spiegel, it is warned that a potential victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential election would reshape the world in ways unseen since the Second World War. The former president, along with his loyalists, has declared democracy as an enemy and aims to destabilise the Western alliance system. Such a scenario could bring unpredictable and challenging times to Europe, particularly in the face of the looming Russian threat of invasion.
Perhaps, as Der Spiegel suggests, we should take Donald Trump at his word. In early December, when asked if he would transform the United States into a dictatorship after a reelection, Trump’s response was not a clear affirmation or denial. Instead, he humorously raised his finger and quipped, “Only on the first day!” While this may be seen as a jest, it’s imperative to pay attention when Trump claims to be joking.
Back in the lead-up to the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton was his opponent, Trump famously stated, “I will totally accept the results of this great and historic election – if I win.” At that time, many viewed it as a humorous remark. However, four years later, he incited a mob to storm the Capitol after losing to Joe Biden.
Trump is known for his deception and trickery, but he is also known for not hiding his intentions. During his first term, he followed through on promises such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement, exiting the Iran Nuclear Deal, imposing tariffs on Europe and China, and even considering withdrawal from NATO, an organisation he once deemed “obsolete.” If given a second term, there may be no one left to restrain him from pursuing these actions.
John Bolton, the former National Security Advisor to Trump, warns that another four years would be Trump in his purest form. He stated, “He will no longer surround himself with people who openly express their opinions and dissuade him from unwise decisions.” Bolton, who was fired by Trump for not keeping his opinions to himself, speaks from experience.
With the U.S. election just around the corner, Trump’s chances of returning to the White House are significant. His recent victory in the Iowa Caucus over rivals like Florida’s Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley solidify his position. In fact, Trump is already behaving as if he has secured the Republican nomination to challenge Joe Biden. Recent polling data shows that in many crucial swing states, Trump is currently ahead of the incumbent president.
A potential Trump victory would have far-reaching consequences, especially for European security. There is a real possibility that he could halt or significantly reduce the billions of dollars in American military aid to Ukraine. Europeans should hope that he doesn’t immediately follow through on what he has long contemplated: severing ties with the Western defence alliance. Above all, Trump’s return to power would align the most powerful nation in the Western world with autocratic leaders he has openly admired, including Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
As Europe grapples with the ongoing Russian threat of invasion, the prospect of Trump’s return to the presidency adds an unsettling layer of uncertainty to an already precarious situation. The world watches with bated breath as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, recognising the profound implications it holds for global stability and European security.
Stay informed on European political tensions and armed conflicts with our unique magazine. Subscribe for exclusive insights into current affairs and ongoing global issues.
