Spiralling tensions between Pristina and Belgrade have again spilt over into violence, casting a shadow of doubt over the European Union’s diplomatic efforts in the western Balkans. In a recent interview with The Guardian, Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, expressed his despair regarding a decade of negotiations aimed at normalising relations with Serbia, which steadfastly refuses to recognise Kosovo’s independent status. Unfortunately, Mr Kurti’s concerns were tragically validated when an ambush near the Serbian border-left five people dead, including a Kosovan police officer. This escalation of tensions underscores the EU’s struggle to mediate the Kosovo-Serbia dispute effectively.
The consequences of diplomatic failure in this volatile region extend far beyond the borders of Kosovo and Serbia, particularly in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The European Union has intensified its efforts to integrate the western Balkans into its sphere of influence to counteract Moscow’s growing sway. However, the recent violence signals that the EU’s approach in this Balkan hotspot is faltering.
Last spring, a potential breakthrough agreement seemed to offer hope, with Serbia agreeing to recognize Kosovo’s nationhood in exchange for semi-autonomous powers for Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo. However, Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić, has yet to sign the deal and has even boasted about his refusal to do so. Furthermore, in April, his government opposed Kosovo’s bid for membership in the Council of Europe. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kurti has failed to deliver political self-management in Kosovo’s Serb-majority areas, leading to heightened tensions and a dismal 4% turnout in local elections due to a boycott.
This precarious situation threatens to tip into serious violence, and EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell may bear some responsibility. Prime Minister Kurti has criticized the EU’s special envoy, Miroslav Lajčák, for losing neutrality, further eroding trust on the Kosovan side. Western politicians have echoed similar concerns, highlighting a “Belgrade-centric policy for the Balkans” in the West.
Brussels and Washington have appeared to prioritize keeping President Vučić onside due to Serbia’s regional influence and its significant ties to Russia. However, this approach risks neglecting the need to protect Kosovo from the machinations of a much larger neighbour that denies its right to exist. With the spectre of recent events in Ukraine looming large, it’s understandable that Prime Minister Kurti harbours reservations about granting greater power to separatist-leaning Kosovo Serbs in the north. Meanwhile, Russia opportunistically exploits the instability, and President Vučić manipulates the crisis to bolster nationalist support at home.
Critics of Prime Minister Kurti argue that he has made mistakes as well, fueling resentments in the north, where greater autonomy is inevitably part of any successful settlement. However, it’s crucial to remember that this is a final status issue that should be addressed alongside substantive moves from Belgrade. Additionally, the EU must address its own internal divisions, as five member states have yet to recognize Kosovo due to a misguided equivalence between its independence and its own minority issues. A more united Europe would wield greater authority and effectiveness as a mediator in this troubled and vital region.
As tensions continue to escalate and violence flares, it is imperative that the European Union reevaluates its strategy for mediating Kosovo-Serbia relations. The time has come for a unified approach that prioritizes the peaceful resolution of this long-standing dispute, ensuring the stability and security of the western Balkans and Europe as a whole.
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