In a significant shift, Germany is set to reinstate national military service, a move driven by growing concerns over Russian aggression. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius announced the plan on Wednesday, outlining a detailed blueprint that will require 18-year-old men to complete a questionnaire as part of a selective conscription process. This proposal, now under review by lawmakers and coalition partners, marks Germany’s most substantial military overhaul since the Cold War era.
Pistorius emphasised the urgency of the initiative, citing intelligence forecasts predicting that Russia could rebuild its military capabilities within the next five years, potentially posing a renewed threat to Europe. “We are setting up the recruitment processes for increasing our troop size,” Pistorius stated, acknowledging the challenges ahead. The initial phase aims to enrol 5,000 new recruits next year, with the long-term goal of significantly bolstering Germany’s military strength.
The plan, estimated to cost €1.4 billion initially, involves sending out questionnaires to 400,000 young men annually. From this pool, 40,000 will undergo medical examinations, with 10,000 ultimately selected for basic training. This selective system, inspired by Scandinavian models, avoids the constitutional complexities of full conscription by making the process optional for women.
The decline of the Bundeswehr from its Cold War peak of 500,000 troops to the current 180,000 is partly attributed to decades of peace and inadequate military conditions. Eva Högl, an MP from Pistorius’ Social Democrats and parliamentary coordinator for the armed forces, highlighted the urgent need for infrastructural improvements, estimating costs at around €50 billion. This comes in addition to the €100 billion fund allocated last year for new military equipment.
Pistorius’ proposal has received cautious support from key political figures. Finance Minister Christian Lindner of the Free Democrats called it a move in the “right direction,” although he has previously clashed with Pistorius over defence spending. The proposal’s success hinges on approval from the Bundestag and Germany’s ruling coalition, which remains divided on defence issues.
Public sentiment in Germany generally favours a return to national service, but the plan has sparked controversy, particularly regarding its feasibility. Pistorius aims to increase the army’s headcount to 203,000 by 2031, with an additional 260,000 reservists needed to defend the eastern flank. However, experts doubt whether these targets can be met in the near term. “It’s hard to say when we can close that gap,” Pistorius admitted.
A high-ranking German officer, speaking anonymously, expressed skepticism about the plan’s ability to meet the necessary troop levels. “The model proposed won’t yield anywhere near the total needed to credibly defend the country’s borders,” the officer warned.
Gender inclusion remains another contentious issue. Although the Bundeswehr has set a 20 percent quota for female soldiers, it currently falls short with only 13 percent women in its ranks. The prospect of amending the constitution to include women in the draft is politically daunting and unlikely to garner widespread support. Moreover, the Bundeswehr’s hostile environment for women, highlighted by a rise in reported sexual misconduct incidents, further complicates efforts to attract female recruits.
The reinstatement of national service in Germany represents a significant response to escalating security threats from Russia. This development is likely to exacerbate tensions between the West and Russia, as it signals a robust commitment by Germany to strengthen its military capabilities. The move is expected to increase the strategic pressure on Russia, potentially provoking retaliatory measures and further destabilising the region.
For Germany and the European Union, this shift carries profound implications for their collective security. Germany’s enhanced military readiness will play a crucial role in the EU’s resistance against Russian aggression, reinforcing NATO’s eastern flank. However, the success of this initiative depends on overcoming logistical, political, and social challenges.
As Europe grapples with the spectre of renewed conflict, Germany’s return to national service underscores the continent’s evolving security landscape. The impact of these developments will be closely watched, as they shape the future of European defence and the broader geopolitical dynamics with Russia.
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