Washington, DC – The escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have put the United States in a difficult position, challenging its foreign policy goals in the Middle East. While President Joe Biden has expressed unwavering support for Israel, the US is also striving to prevent the conflict in Gaza from spreading further. This delicate balance has raised concerns about the effectiveness of US deterrence efforts and the potential for a regional war. Analysts argue that the current approach, which rewards Israel and warns Iran against retaliation, has proven disastrous and may hinder efforts to de-escalate the situation.
The brinkmanship and resulting tensions have put further strain on Washington’s foreign policy. Already, the US is caught between two seemingly conflicting priorities: offering unconditional support for Israel and preventing the conflict in Gaza from expanding. Critics argue that the Biden administration’s “double down” on a formula that has been disastrous so far is exacerbating the situation.
Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, a think tank that promotes diplomacy, asserts that Biden should have rebuked Israel for attacking the Iranian embassy on April 1, violating international law and endangering US troops in the region. However, the Biden administration is rewarding the Israeli government instead by promising its support. The US, unlike some of its Arab and Western allies, has not condemned the Israeli strike on the Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including two generals. The White House, however, was quick to distance itself from the strike, emphasising that the US was not involved in it.
This US approach to the crisis has been criticised as hypocritical and contradictory. While US officials call for de-escalation and urge restraint from Iran, they simultaneously reaffirm their country’s “ironclad” support for Israel. This dichotomy has created a situation where Israel feels it has no incentive to de-escalate the conflict. Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank, describes the US approach as “hypocritical and contradictory,” as it calls on all parties in the region to be restrained, but encourages Israel to act with impunity.
Iran, on the other hand, has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the attack on its consulate, partly driven by the perception that the US and Israel believe they can cause harm without triggering a strong reaction from Tehran. The Iranian pledge to retaliate is seen as a way for Iran to draw a firm line and establish its position. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei stated that the “Zionist regime made a mistake and must be punished and will be punished.” The form and location of this promised punishment remain uncertain, but its occurrence could potentially be a turning point in the expanding Gaza conflict.
The conflict in Gaza has already extended beyond the narrow enclave, with Iran-allied Lebanese group Hezbollah engaging in daily exchanges of fire with Israeli forces. The Houthis in Yemen have also been targeting Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea, demanding an end to the war. Furthermore, a US-led coalition has been targeting the Yemeni group to stem its attacks. The trend towards regional escalation seemed to subside temporarily after Iraqi armed groups halted their attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria, reportedly at the request of Tehran. However, the region is once again on the brink of a widened conflict.
The pressure to prevent further escalation now rests on Israel and the US. The US aims to avoid being pulled into a war with Iran, particularly as President Biden seeks reelection in November. However, the US’s default policy has long been to support Israel, creating a challenging balance. While the US may be privately urging Israel to exercise restraint, publicly it is warning Iran against escalating the war. Domestic politics heavily influence the US stance, with giving ironclad guarantees to Israel’s defence already being a given.
The best remedy to the simmering tensions across the Middle East, according to Trita Parsi, is ending the war in Gaza. A ceasefire would not only halt the attacks by Iraqi militias on US forces but also put an end to the Houthi attacks and the escalation between Iran and Israel, as well as between Israel and Hezbollah. A ceasefire would provide a path to de-escalation and prevent further deterioration of the situation.
The current Israel-Iran tensions and the strain they place on US policy highlight the complexities of the Middle East. Balancing support for Israel with the goal of preventing a regional war is proving to be a significant challenge for the Biden administration. A reevaluation of US policy, prioritising de-escalation and diplomatic efforts, may offer a more effective path forward in resolving the crisis and promoting stability in the region. The consequences of a failure to address the underlying issues could be disastrous, with the potential for a wider conflict and further loss of life.
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