The ongoing political and territorial dispute between Kosovo and Serbia, sixteen years post Kosovo’s declaration of independence, remains a significant and evolving issue in international relations. Serbia, refusing to acknowledge Kosovo’s independence, continues to assert its claim over the region, which it considers an integral part of its territory. This stance is rooted in the aftermath of the 1999 NATO bombing campaign, which was a response to humanitarian crises and ethnic cleansing perpetrated by Serbian forces during the Balkan wars—a series of conflicts that led to the deaths of nearly a quarter-million people, including at least 10,000 in Kosovo alone.
The situation took a notable turn in September 2022, amidst the backdrop of Russia’s full-scale war on Ukraine. Serbia, an EU candidate country, entered into a “foreign policy consultancy agreement” with Russia, aligning more closely with Moscow. This move included a refusal to join Western-imposed sanctions on Russia, thereby diverging from the path expected of an aspiring EU member. This realignment has had ripple effects, particularly in exacerbating tensions with Kosovo, which enjoys the recognition and support of many Western powers, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Scandinavian countries, and over 100 other nations.
Serbia has been accused of numerous provocations and aggressive actions towards Kosovo. These include deploying armed forces near the Kosovo border, despite NATO’s presence aimed at maintaining territorial integrity. Additionally, Serbia has allegedly orchestrated a boycott of Kosovo’s public institutions by ethnic Serbs in the region, involving their resignation from roles in public administration, policing, and the justice system. There have also been attempts to seize government buildings and erect roadblocks, aiming to establish autonomous regions akin to the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbia is also implicated in the abduction of two Kosovar border police officers.
The leadership in Serbia, particularly under President Aleksandar Vucic, a former minister in the Milosevic regime, has been a point of contention. Vucic’s background includes justifying crimes against humanity during the Balkan conflicts, which raises concerns about his current policies and actions. The Serbian Government is purportedly implicated in orchestrating an operation where over 100 heavily armed Russian styled “green men” crossed into northern Kosovo from Serbia’s southern boundary with Kosovo. This incursion resulted in the death of a Kosovar police officer. In response, the Kosovar Police Special Forces intervened, neutralising three Belgrade-backed militants and detaining six others.
On the other side, Kosovo’s political landscape has seen significant changes with the rise of leaders like Prime Minister Albin Kurti and President Vjosa Osmani, both of whom have a history of opposition to the Milosevic regime. Their leadership has shifted the geopolitical dynamics in favour of Kosovo, despite Serbia’s refusal to acknowledge or honour any agreements that do not include provisions for an ethnically based Association of Serb Municipalities, a proposal Kosovo rejects as it contradicts the Ahtisaari Plan and Kosovo’s constitution.
Recently, President Vucic asserted that Serbia has become a superpower, citing the possession of 300 tanks. Following this, in mid-January 2024, he expressed frustration towards the United States after it approved Kosovo’s request for $75 million USD to acquire Javelin anti-tank missile defence systems.
The decision by Kosovo to purchase Javelin anti-tank missile defence systems can be understood in the context of its ongoing security concerns and the need to bolster its defence capabilities in a region marked by historical tensions and recent escalations. The acquisition of these advanced weapons systems is part of Kosovo’s broader strategy to modernise and strengthen its military forces, ensuring a robust defence against potential external threats.
The Javelin system, known for its accuracy and effectiveness, provides Kosovo with a significant upgrade in its defensive arsenal. It’s particularly suited for deterring armoured threats, which is a pertinent consideration given Serbia’s recent enhancement of its own tank fleet. By equipping its military with such advanced weaponry, Kosovo aims to create a credible deterrent against any aggressive moves, especially considering Serbia’s military advancements and the historical context of conflicts in the Balkan region.
Moreover, this move can be seen as a response to the shifting geopolitical dynamics in the region. With Serbia aligning more closely with Russia, as evidenced by their foreign policy consultancy agreement and refusal to impose Western sanctions on Russia and continuous military threats against Kosovo, the latter likely feels the need to strengthen its military capabilities to counterbalance these developments. The Javelin purchase not only enhances Kosovo’s defence but also symbolises the support and confidence of Western powers, particularly the United States, in Kosovo’s sovereignty and security.
The decision reflects Kosovo’s ongoing efforts to align more closely with Western military standards and potentially pave the way for greater integration into Euro-Atlantic security structures. By acquiring NATO-compatible equipment, Kosovo demonstrates its commitment to aligning with Western defence policies and standards, which could support its aspirations for closer ties with NATO and potentially future membership.
Serbia’s Dangerous Game: Misguided Bravado and the Perils of Ignoring History
The mere notion of Serbia contemplating an attack on Kosovo reeks of reckless bravado and historical amnesia. Propelled by Russian propaganda and nationalist fervour, as evidenced by President Aleksandar Vucic’s approval of Azerbaijan’s actions in Nagorno Karabakh, Serbia’s leadership appears to be dangerously delusional. Prime Minister Ana Brnabic’s audacious claim that Kosovars won’t celebrate their 16th anniversary of independence is not just provocative; it’s absurdly out of touch with the current geopolitical realities.
Serbia’s bluster ignores the stark lessons of its past. The 1999 scenario, where it wasn’t surrounded by NATO but still suffered under its bombardment, should be a sobering reminder. Fast forward to today, and Serbia is practically hemmed in by NATO member states. More critically, Kosovo, while not a NATO member, is under the protective umbrella of the Alliance, which is committed to preserving its territorial integrity. Kosovo’s armed forces, professionally trained to NATO standards and backed by the United States, represent a formidable deterrent.
This seismic shift in power dynamics seems lost on Serbian leadership. Their failure to recognise the potentially catastrophic consequences of any aggressive move against Kosovo is not just foolhardy; it borders on geopolitical suicide. Engaging in a conflict with Kosovo now could trigger a far more devastating and widespread confrontation than anything experienced in the Balkan wars. Serbia, blinded by its own misguided rhetoric, risks sparking a fire it cannot control, naively assuming Russia’s support, which, in reality, might not materialise. It’s a perilous game of brinkmanship where Serbia stands to lose much more than it can ever hope to gain.
Vudi Xhymshiti, founder of The Frontliner Magazine, brings a wealth of experience in reporting on global armed conflicts and political issues. With a background in Documentary Photography and Photojournalism from the University of the Arts London, and studies in Political Science, International Relations, and Diplomacy, Vudi skilfully merges human rights insights with dedicated journalism. His ethical and thoughtful reporting has graced top publications like The Guardian and The New York Times. At The Frontliner, launched in 2023, he explores the profound effects of conflicts on law, human rights, and freedoms, continuing his commitment to impactful storytelling.
