The major changes in the global geopolitical landscape significantly influence the Balkan region. Serbia, the critical node in this branch of changes, openly articulates a political idea for revisionism through its “Serbian World” program. It clearly manifests readiness to endanger peace in the south-eastern Balkan region with harsh nationalist rhetoric and open aggression against the Republic of Kosovo. It also continues its ongoing obstructions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro.
In a political context, revisionism refers to the opposition and open challenge of established historical narratives, political systems, or international norms. Serbia openly challenges the current political and security order in the Balkans by not recognizing the reality in the new state of Kosovo, eroding the institutional stability of Bosnia-Herzegovina, and interfering in the domestic affairs of Montenegro.
A powerful impetus for the reformulation of Serbian Balkan policy has been the Russian Federation’s aggression in Ukraine and China’s warnings about the invasion of Taiwan. The dismemberment of Ukraine since 2014 and the inability of the international community to prevent it, as well as China’s aggressive military manoeuvres in the Taiwan Strait, exemplify how state borders, political orders, and regional balances are changeable by military force. Particularly, the large-scale invasion of Ukraine in terms of global security is a devastating earthquake, signifying the era of revisionism, where continuous border changes by force are evident. This is not an isolated local development.
In the state ideological sense, modern Serbian revisionism is embodied by the slogan “Serbian World” (Serbian: Srpski svet; Cyrillic: Српски свет). Influential politicians at the highest levels of official Belgrade and state-controlled media widely trumpet this slogan in Serbia’s public discourse. The “Serbian world” catchphrase, widely used since the mid-2010s, continues the official policy for territorial expansion rooted in the Načertanije political program by former Serbian statesman and Prime Minister Ilija Garašanin. He drafted the idea of a Greater Serbia that would absorb all the Serbs of the region.
Serbia’s Unholy Trinity: Nationalist Fantasies, Criminal Entanglements, and Authoritarian Ambitions
The fantasy and intoxication of primitive nationalism largely dominate Serbia’s political and social life, taking hostage the democratic development processes and contributing to ongoing regional tension. Serbian nationalism, functioning as an oxygen tube for politics in Serbia, sustains nationalism with the promise of restoring “greatness” based on mediaeval myths. This creates a catastrophic vicious circle, inextricably gripping Serbia’s political and social life.
The second component of this trinity is the world of crime, organically connected to Serbian state institutions, acting as a consolidated pillar of political and social power. Mafia clans in Serbia, dating back to the early 1990s, were created and empowered by the state for genocidal wars in Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kosovo. These clans are still maintained for the exclusive advantage of internal politics and projecting Serbia’s influence in the region. In Serbia, mafia clans secure votes for the current president, Aleksandar Vučić, and in return, receive impunity and business favours. In terms of Serbia’s regional ambitions, mafia clans function as the state’s secret hand, as seen in the terrorist attack in Banjska, portraying the country’s institutions as not involved in aggression against sovereign states.
The third component is the authoritarianism of political power in Serbia, a legacy of the lack of democracy since the establishment of the first political and bureaucratic institutions during and after Ottoman rule. The authoritarianism of Aleksandar Vučić, the monopolisation of political-economic power, media control, and public life largely determine Serbia’s current position as a destructive state with great potential for jeopardising regional peace. Vučić is undoubtedly the pyramid of this complex network of traditions, institutions, and interests, acting as a vanguard and guarantor of Serbia’s known ambitions for revisionism, amounting to a violent change of borders in the Balkan context.
Can Serbia forcibly alter the political boundaries of the Balkan region?
Serbia has undertaken a significant modernisation effort to bolster its armed forces and intelligence apparatus, clearly reaffirming its readiness to accompany nationalist rhetoric and plans for a revisionist approach with real military force. The encouragement and support of the president of the Republika Srpska entity in Bosnia, the ultra-nationalist secessionist Milorad Dodik, the game with demographic complexities and the Serbian Orthodox Church in Montenegro, and the open aggression and terrorist attack against Kosovo are first indications that the “Serbian World” plan is not mere rhetoric, but a real ambition in Belgrade’s political agenda. History teaches that shifts in world politics often lead regional powers to implement plans for regional hegemony. The same could happen with Serbia, and in a favourable geopolitical case, or any sudden change, Serbia could pursue the establishment of a unified “Serbian World” through technical-military means.
Western powers should take these ambitions of Serbia very seriously and not tolerate them; forcing Serbia to accept the new reality and pushing it towards domestic democratisation. Any other approach would be erroneous.
Taulant Elshani
Taulant Elshani, based in Kosovo, is a senior researcher and insightful contributing author for THE Frontliner Magazine. Beyond his research, he also excels as a hybrid warfare analyst at the Institute for Hybrid Threats Studies "Octopus".
In this role, Taulant skillfully applies his deep understanding of complex warfare dynamics. His expertise in this specialized field not only enhances his analytical abilities but also brings a unique and profound perspective to his writings. Through his contributions to THE Frontliner, Taulant offers readers a deeper, nuanced view of the intricate aspects of modern warfare, enriching their understanding of contemporary global challenges.
