Tbilisi, GEORGIA — In Tbilisi, the ancient and ever-beating heart of Georgia, the air hums with anticipation, fear, and, most notably, the tantalizing scent of possibility. This Sunday’s election, while only the latest in a series of pivotal votes for the post-Soviet nation, stands as perhaps its most consequential. It is a watershed moment that will determine Georgia’s future relationship with Europe and, by extension, its very identity. In the villages bordering Russian-occupied territories, fear simmers as citizens cast nervous glances toward the north, conscious that a looming presence stands just kilometers away, waiting for any sign of weakness. Georgia’s struggle is no longer a quiet one. The stakes reach far beyond the Georgian borders—stretching into the halls of Brussels, London, and beyond—as the West watches intently, wondering if the beacon of democracy in the Caucasus will be snuffed out, or if it can be reignited.
At the heart of this struggle stands Georgian Dream, the ruling party dominated by oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili. The party came to power over a decade ago with promises of stability and European integration, but as its grip has tightened, it has increasingly embraced a rhetoric more aligned with authoritarianism. This election, it seems, is less about policy than survival. Ivanishvili’s dominance is omnipresent, cloaked in the party’s symbol and punctuated by his message of stability—or the threat of chaos—depending on one’s loyalty to the regime. His messages are not subtle: pro-Europeanism and democracy are framed as threats to Georgian identity and peace, while Western liberalism is cast as an insidious influence, uncomfortably foreign, a snake ready to strike.
On election day, as reported by Georgian media and observers, Georgian Dream’s honorary chair Bidzina Ivanishvili arrived with his family to cast his vote in Tbilisi. The opposition swiftly raised concerns, alleging that the polling station was temporarily closed to other voters during Ivanishvili’s visit. Just hours later, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze made an oddly prescient statement, calling on all political parties to respect the election’s outcome, “when the 60% result is announced.” His implied foreknowledge of the results has fueled suspicions that the democratic process may already be skewed toward a foregone conclusion, reinforcing fears that the election is less a choice than an exercise in control.
Tbilisi: The Pulse of a Nation
In Tbilisi’s central avenues, a tale of two campaigns unfolds. Georgian Dream’s posters flash with the iconic stars of the EU, a visual manipulation aimed at a nation where nearly 80 percent of the population favours EU integration. Yet in juxtaposition, darker imagery fills the city: scenes of Ukrainian ruins displayed alongside Georgia’s pristine buildings. This dichotomy is designed to scare the populace with the promise of war, a reminder of Georgia’s own bloody confrontations with Russia, first in 1991 and later in 2008 when Russia wrested control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The implication is clear: Georgian Dream promises peace, while pro-European opposition risks war.
In the villages near Russian-controlled territories, citizens speak in hushed tones of Russian soldiers stationed unnervingly close. The message from Georgian Dream is that any further overture to the West will provoke Moscow, threatening to destabilise an uneasy peace with a return to violence.
Yet, in his recent speech to a crowded rally in Tbilisi, Ivanishvili stood behind bulletproof glass, proclaiming his loyalty to Georgian sovereignty and stability. The emphasis on security was unmistakable, though many in the international community heard a different tone—a veiled threat that if opposition forces gained too much ground, order itself might hang in the balance. The West sees Ivanishvili’s playbook: he’s prepared to pit democracy against fear, an existential question whose implications stretch beyond Georgia’s borders and into the heart of Europe itself.
Erosion of Institutions and the Rise of Intimidation
In the weeks leading up to the election, the veneer of democracy in Georgia has been worn thin by state-sanctioned intimidation and calculated displays of power. Days ago, the homes of Eto Buziashvili and Sopo Gelava, prominent researchers with the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, were raided by the Financial Police. Accusations of money laundering and tax fraud were brought against them, a suspiciously timed move just before the election that raised serious concerns. Devices were seized, and an office of the California-based Concentrix company was raided, while officials insisted the investigation stemmed from genuine financial concerns. Critics, however, saw these moves as an attempt to silence voices that might question Georgian Dream’s control of the electoral process.
European leaders, including Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, have observed what they call a “clear democratic backsliding” in Georgia. Borrell recently warned that this election would be a moment of truth, echoing French President Emmanuel Macron’s sentiment that Georgia’s EU accession is now all but frozen. Their shared message underscores a stark reality: without decisive change, Georgia risks slipping into authoritarianism.
The judiciary, state media, and electoral commission—once pillars of Georgia’s democracy—are now largely in Georgian Dream’s pocket. The international community, including Brussels and Washington, has responded with restrained warnings, leaving Georgians increasingly isolated. Zourabichvili, Georgia’s president, herself elected with Georgian Dream’s initial backing, now voices concern from the sidelines, her influence waning. When asked by The Frontliner about potential Western contingencies, she optimistically urged the Georgian people to vote, brushing aside the reality of an electorate cowed by years of intimidation. For Georgian Dream, the coming election is a means of solidifying a one-party rule where opposition is marginalized, if not outright crushed.
The Alt-Info Factor: Pro-Russian Extremism
Adding to the complexities is Alt-Info, a pro-Russian alt-right group that has become something of a paramilitary extension of Georgian Dream. This week, they announced the formation of an “Anti-Maidan” group aimed at suppressing any protests over the election outcome. Known for its violent actions, including the July 5, 2021, assault on journalists and LGBTQ activists, Alt-Info’s latest move signals that should the opposition reject the election results, the government has loyal enforcers ready to deploy. In Georgia, Alt-Info represents the transformation of political differences into a physical threat, one that carries both an implicit and overt promise of violence. Their threats underscore Georgian Dream’s strategy: ensure that the fear of dissent outweighs the desire for change.
The current polling landscape reveals a suspicious trend. Georgian Dream, in an Imedi TV poll, claims a 60 percent approval rating, far exceeding that of any opposition coalition. But the opposition, along with international observers, has raised alarms about voter manipulation, accusing the ruling party of leveraging state resources to ensure a predetermined outcome. As tensions build, observers see ominous parallels to Belarus, where election fraud in 2020 spurred violent repression and a drift into Moscow’s orbit.
A Battle for Europe’s Eastern Border
Georgia’s fate is deeply intertwined with the European Union’s geopolitical narrative. Brussels, which once lauded Georgia as a model of post-Soviet democratic reform, now watches with mounting apprehension. Borrell and Macron are blunt in their assessment: Georgia has strayed so far from the EU’s democratic standards that its accession process has been halted. Lithuania’s President Nausėda has pointedly stated that if pro-European forces succeed, the EU pathway could be reopened. Yet the EU’s rhetoric has failed to translate into concrete support, and so Georgia’s pro-democratic factions find themselves waging an asymmetric battle on an uneven field.
To Europeans, this election underscores a troubling question: can democracy survive in a region where authoritarian regimes loom large and exploit instability? The stakes for Brussels are not trivial. If Georgia’s democracy collapses, it signifies a blow to the EU’s influence and credibility in its eastern periphery, where Russia remains eager to regain lost influence. Steven Everts, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies, argues that Georgia’s election is “about what Europe itself stands for—a battle for the soul of Europe.” Brussels is thus faced with a stark choice: support Georgia’s pro-democracy forces decisively or watch as Russia re-establishes its influence across yet another former Soviet state.
A Fractured Opposition and the Path Forward
Georgia’s opposition, a coalition of parties spanning a spectrum of pro-European ideologies, faces significant challenges. While they have united under the Coalition for Change, their fractured history and the divisive figure of Mikheil Saakashvili, the former president now jailed, remain points of contention. Georgian Dream, meanwhile, controls the narrative, framing the opposition as a threat to peace and casting itself as the sole arbiter of stability. The EU and the U.S. have issued statements supporting free and fair elections but have yet to outline the repercussions for any election interference.
Western policy on Georgia remains constrained, burdened by a reticence to provoke Moscow. Sanctions against individuals within Georgian Dream, including Ivanishvili, have been proposed but remain largely rhetorical. The EU and the U.S. are caught in a balancing act, wary of pushing Georgia fully into Moscow’s orbit yet aware that failure to act could yield the same outcome. With EU enlargement stalled and internal divisions growing, Europe’s influence on its periphery has never seemed so fragile.
The People of Georgia: A Choice Defined by Fear
As Georgians prepare to cast their votes, the stakes could not be higher. The choice is less about party preference than about the country’s very future. Will Georgia remain a beacon of democracy, a testament to the resilience of European values in a challenging region, or will it succumb to an authoritarian trajectory with ominous implications for the entire Caucasus?
Ivanishvili’s government has pushed Georgia closer to a point of no return. Fear, violence, and propaganda have created an atmosphere where citizens are forced to choose between security and sovereignty, peace and self-determination. For Europe, Georgia’s decision reverberates beyond the Caucasus; it is a bellwether for the EU’s resolve in defending its values at its eastern border.
The streets of Tbilisi remain tense as the election looms. Across the country, as dawn breaks on October 26, a simple question hangs in the air: can democracy survive under the weight of intimidation and fear? The answer, whatever it may be, will echo throughout Europe.
Vudi Xhymshiti, founder of The Frontliner Magazine, brings a wealth of experience in reporting on global armed conflicts and political issues. With a background in Documentary Photography and Photojournalism from the University of the Arts London, and studies in Political Science, International Relations, and Diplomacy, Vudi skilfully merges human rights insights with dedicated journalism. His ethical and thoughtful reporting has graced top publications like The Guardian and The New York Times. At The Frontliner, launched in 2023, he explores the profound effects of conflicts on law, human rights, and freedoms, continuing his commitment to impactful storytelling.
Irakli Thakalandze
Irakli Takalandze is a political science researcher from Georgia with a focus on current political processes, youth engagement, and fact-checking misinformation. He holds a Bachelor's in Political Science and a Master's in Public Relations, both from Ilia State University. Additionally, he studied International Relations at the University of Glasgow as an exchange student.
Throughout his career, Irakli has collaborated with various NGOs, contributing significantly to their projects. He has served as a Social Media Monitor for ISFED and as a Myth Detector for MDF. His other roles include Regional Development Director and PR & Communications Coordinator for Georgia's Future Academy, and Fundraising Manager for Girchi More Freedom.
Irakli's academic and professional background equips him to deliver insightful journalism. His work makes him a prominent voice in Georgian media, ensuring the integrity and accuracy of information.
