In Serbia, President Aleksandar Vucic’s authoritarian regime has become deeply intertwined with the political and historical trajectory of the Serbian state over the past decades. A significant concentration of power is evident through the control of media and civil society, the suppression of opposition, strong ties with underground networks, and election manipulations (notably those on December 17). Furthermore, connections with dictator Putin, particularly post the invasion of Ukraine, have led to a surprisingly tolerant stance from the West towards Vucic. This has transformed him into a political adventurer with highly destructive tendencies, posing a threat to regional peace and stability.
The central thesis of this analysis argues for the urgent need for the West to alter its political strategy towards Serbia. This includes ceasing to tolerate President Vucic’s aggressive and hostile posture towards Kosovo and other Balkan states and advocating for Serbia’s democratisation.
The “appeasement” policy, prevalent between the world wars, notably through British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s efforts to placate Hitler, involved deliberately tolerating an opponent’s aggression to avoid war. This strategy of world politics is widely debated among academics, with Stephen Rock and Fareed Zakaria supporting it, while John Mearsheimer and Robert Kagan oppose it.
This analysis aims to illustrate that appeasement, or the tolerance and understanding of the expansionist ambitions of autocrats and dictators, is ineffective. This was evidenced by its failure to prevent World War II or contain Hitler, despite Chamberlain’s attempts.
Tolerance as a Strategy to Dissuade President Vucic has Failed.
In recent years, the West’s approach towards Aleksandar Vucic has been lenient, partly in hopes of drawing Serbia away from Russian influence and due to a flawed geopolitical assessment. This strategy’s failure became evident with the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which gave Vucic and his regime considerable advantages. The West’s tacit and at times overt tolerance of Serbia’s destructive behaviour has led to a complete overhaul of its policies and approach towards this Balkan nation. Questions arose even on fundamental issues such as democracy and human rights, and whether such tolerance towards Vucic was beneficial for the West.
The escalation of authoritarianism within Serbia, its antagonistic stance, and direct aggression against Kosovo on September 24, 2023, coupled with strengthened ties to Russia, have starkly demonstrated the failure of the West’s appeasement. Not only did it fail to detach Serbia from Russian influence, but it also emboldened President Vucic to intensify his vision of a “Serbian World”. This concept, featuring paramilitary and terrorist aggression against Kosovo, severely undermines regional peace and stability.
Urgent Need for a Radical Shift in the West’s Approach
Vucic’s escalating destructiveness has led to unpredictable scenarios, particularly since February 2022. The tolerance of Serbia’s aggression (appeasement) and its systematically hostile attitude towards Kosovo – exemplified by the logistical, financial, and political support in Kosovo’s northern municipalities, the overt financing of the “Northern Brigade” and “Civil Defense” terrorist organisations, the tolerance of militaristic rhetoric against Kosovo, and the recent impunity for terrorist and paramilitary attacks in Banjska – must be recognized as a significant misstep in the West’s approach to Serbia. A radical and comprehensive overhaul of Western policies and strategies in the Balkans is imperative.
The Western policy of appeasement towards Aleksandar Vucic has not only increased Serbia’s reliance on Russia but has also led to the procurement of more advanced weaponry. It has emboldened Serbia to undertake perilous military ventures, such as open paramilitary and terrorist aggression against Kosovo. This stance has also intensified nationalist rhetoric against Bosnia-Herzegovina, further entrenched authoritarianism, and eroded democratic principles within Serbia.
On both a principled and strategic level, the West must prioritise the democratisation of Serbia in its approach to the Balkans. This is the sole and sustainable solution to ensure long-term peace and regional stability. Internal democratisation in Serbia would pave the way for the emergence of a government through free and democratic elections. It would also facilitate the recognition of Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state, the cessation of obstructions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro, and ultimately lead to Serbia’s integration into the European Union. This approach represents the only viable path to enduring peace in the Balkans and Europe.
The West should adopt a policy of conditional aid, making the continuation of financial assistance, integration processes, and favourable relations with Serbia contingent upon its radical democratisation and a revised approach towards its neighbours.
Conditioning these three processes is crucial, as they are fundamental to Serbia’s position and ongoing prosperity.
In 2022, Serbia received approximately 1 billion euros in aid from the European Union through various instruments, including 286 million euros for economic development and rule of law projects and about 720 million euros from the European Investment Bank in loans.
However, Serbia has neither demonstrated democratic reforms nor adherence to the rule of law. On the contrary, there has been a marked decline in democratic representation, and at the regional level, Serbia has exported violence and terror, evidenced by its aggression against Kosovo and disruptions in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The West must convey to the autocratic Vucic that he is not a suitable partner for further integration stages. This will necessitate creating conditions for new political leadership in Serbia, under the stipulations of profound democratic reforms, including free elections, media independence, rule of law, and the explicit condition of recognizing Kosovo’s independence and immediately halting destructive policies and obstructions in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro.
Since signing a treaty of foreign policy alignment with Moscow in September 2022, Serbia has instigated some of the most severe security crises in the Balkans by destabilising Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro, spreading terror, obstruction, and covert warfare.
Moreover, Serbia has adopted a revisionist agenda, refusing to recognize neighbouring sovereign states and endorsing the use of force to alter borders. It stands as the only European country with a state program and political agenda aimed at destroying a neighbouring nation – Kosovo. No other European country harbours such destructive and aggressive ambitions, which inevitably lead to conflict.
The West, particularly the United States and the European Union, must decisively shift their political stance towards Serbia. The policy of appeasement must be abandoned immediately. The regime of Aleksandar Vucic should be denounced as a threat to regional peace and stability and isolated as a belligerent leader and ally of Putin.
A democratic Serbia, with legitimate leadership that acknowledges the regional realities and the independence of Kosovo, and adopts a European approach, is the key to sustainable peace. Such a Serbia can become an integral part of long-term agreements and collaborations with Kosovo on equal terms.
Taulant Elshani
Taulant Elshani, based in Kosovo, is a senior researcher and insightful contributing author for THE Frontliner Magazine. Beyond his research, he also excels as a hybrid warfare analyst at the Institute for Hybrid Threats Studies "Octopus".
In this role, Taulant skillfully applies his deep understanding of complex warfare dynamics. His expertise in this specialized field not only enhances his analytical abilities but also brings a unique and profound perspective to his writings. Through his contributions to THE Frontliner, Taulant offers readers a deeper, nuanced view of the intricate aspects of modern warfare, enriching their understanding of contemporary global challenges.
